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2026 Tax Season Update: Real Numbers Behind the OBBBA Refund Boost

We are a few weeks into the 2026 filing season, and the numbers coming out of the IRS are painting an interesting picture for taxpayers. Everyone has been watching to see if the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) would live up to the hype. The initial data is promising: the average refund has climbed to $2,476, up from $2,169 at this time last year.

That is a solid 14.2% increase—an extra $300 in your pocket on average. While this hasn't yet hit the ambitious $1,000 increase some policymakers predicted, it is crucial to remember that it is still early March. As more complex returns are processed, these averages often shift. However, the trend line is undeniable: the new tax provisions are starting to move the needle in the taxpayer's favor.

The OBBBA Provisions Driving Refunds Up

The OBBBA introduced a suite of specific deductions that are directly impacting tax liabilities this year. Whether you are an hourly worker in Saint Louis or a retiree managing investments, there are likely new lines on the 1040 that apply to you.

Senior woman gardening with grandson, representing the new senior bonus deduction

Here is a breakdown of the key changes fueling these larger refunds:

  • The Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: For the first time, the federal tax code is acknowledging the grind of overtime. Generally, the "half" of your "time-and-a-half" pay is now deductible. There are caps—$12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly—but for many workers, this effectively lowers taxable income significantly.

  • The Tips Tax Deduction: If you work in a customarily tipped occupation, up to $25,000 of qualified tips are now deductible. Note that for married couples, a joint return is required to claim this. (Phase-outs for both overtime and tips begin at $150,000 MAGI for singles and $300,000 for joint filers).

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: Did you buy a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024? You can now deduct up to $10,000 of that interest. This applies whether you itemize or take the standard deduction, provided the loan is secured by the vehicle and not a personal loan from a relative.

  • Senior Bonus & Enhanced Standard Deductions: The standard deduction has jumped to $15,750 for singles and $31,500 for married couples. However, the real headline is the "Senior Bonus"—an additional $6,000 deduction for those aged 65 and older, regardless of whether they itemize.

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit has increased to $2,200 per child. While income caps still apply ($200k single/$400k joint), this expansion provides much-needed relief for families.

  • SALT Cap Adjustment: For homeowners in high-tax districts, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit has been raised from the restrictive $10,000 to $40,000 (starting to phase down for those with MAGI over $500,000).

Why Refunds Are Really increasing

Beyond the new deductions, there is a mechanical reason refunds are higher: withholding lag. Many of these OBBBA cuts were enacted mid-year, but IRS withholding tables were not updated in real-time to match. Consequently, many of you had taxes withheld from your paychecks based on the old, higher tax rates. Now that you are filing, that overpayment is coming back to you.

Additionally, inflation adjustments to tax brackets have helped prevent "bracket creep," ensuring that cost-of-living raises didn't accidentally push you into a higher tax tier.

Professional woman reviewing documents in a tax office

Navigating a Challenging IRS Environment

While the refunds are good news, the administrative side requires patience. The IRS is operating with a reduced workforce—down about 25% since January 2025—and processing numbers are currently down about 3.1%. This means accuracy on your initial return is more critical than ever; getting flagged for manual review could result in significant delays.

Professional Guidance Matters

If you are hesitant to file because the new rules seem complex, or if you are worried about missing out on the "Senior Bonus" or the new SALT limits, do not wait. As an Enrolled Agent, I specialize in navigating these exact legislative shifts.

Our firm is fully up-to-speed on every nuance of the OBBBA. We are here to ensure that your return isn't just filed, but optimized to capture every dollar of the refund you are owed. Whether it is handling back taxes or planning for the year ahead, we are ready to help.

Ready to maximize your 2026 refund? Contact our office today to schedule your appointment.

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